Risk assessment


In this task we ask you to choose one of the ten alternatives of each panel. Each alternative is a lottery defined as a combination of the probability of winning and of the amount (in USD cents) you will earn if the favorable result occurs. If the favorable result does not occur, you get nothing. In the case of choosing the probability 1 (with payoff equal to 1 USD cent), this choice implies that you will get 1 USD cent on that panel for sure.

Earning: A 10-sided die is tossed. Note that: The 10 side numbers are: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4,…, 8 or 9. The number shown by the die determines the upper limit of winning numbers. If, for example, the die shows an 8, all numbers except 9 win. Thus, everyone gets the prize that corresponds to the chosen lottery, except for those ones that played the 10% lottery. The ones that play the 20% lottery need at least an 8. The ones choosing 30% need at least a 7 to win. And so on and so forth

Observe the following 4 panels and take your decision. Remember that you must choose one option for each panel. Your bonus for this task is your average gain on all panels.



Panel 1
Probability of winning 100 % 90.0 % 80.0 % 70.0 % 60.0 % 50.0 % 40.0 % 30.0 % 20.0 % 10.0 %
USD cents 1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.6 5.4 10.9
I prefer

Panel 2
Probability of winning 100 % 90.0 % 80.0 % 70.0 % 60.0 % 50.0 % 40.0 % 30.0 % 20.0 % 10.0 %
USD cents 1 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.3 3.0 4.0 5.7 9.0 19.9
I prefer

Panel 3
Probability of winning 100 % 90.0 % 80.0 % 70.0 % 60.0 % 50.0 % 40.0 % 30.0 % 20.0 % 10.0 %
USD cents 1 1.7 2.5 3.6 5.0 7.0 10 15 25 55
I prefer

Panel 4
Probability of winning 100 % 90.0 % 80.0 % 70.0 % 60.0 % 50.0 % 40.0 % 30.0 % 20.0 % 10.0 %
USD cents 1 2.2 3.8 5.7 8.3 12 17.5 26.7 45 100
I prefer